China aiming for 'peaceful rise'
By Willy Wo-Lap Lam, CNN Senior China Analyst
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The 'peaceful rise' policy of President Hu is under scrutiny as China's power continues to grow.
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(CNN) -- The "peaceful rise of China" is one of the most significant new ideas put forward by the administration of President Hu Jintao.
First raised by a group of innovative Shanghai-based academics and cadres to counter the so-called "China threat" theory, heping jueqi (literally "emerging precipitously in a peaceful way") sums up Beijing's avowed goal of good neighborliness and global responsibility.
It means -- as Hu and Premier Wen Jiabao have reiterated during their recent trips to Asia, Europe and North America -- that China will never seek hegemony.
As former Central Party School Vice-President Zheng Bijian pointed out, heping jueqi implies that "China must seek a peaceful global environment to develop its economy even as it tries to safeguard world peace through development".
As well, Beijing has stressed that far from hurting other nations, China's emerging pre-eminence will bring them sizeable gains.
Chinese theorists have drawn a distinction between the rapid expansion of China's economy in the past 10 years and the take-off of Japan and the the four Asian Dragons (South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong) from the 1970s.
While the economic strength of Japan and the dragons was mostly predicated on aggressive, even predatory exports, China's growth can be attributed not just to overseas markets but also massive domestic consumption and foreign investment.
Equally importantly, China has opened its door to imports, which increased by more than 40 percent last year.
And with China sustaining notable trade deficits with most Asian nations, its heping jueqi has contributed to regional well-being.
The concept was best illustrated during Wen's appearance at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meeting late last year, when the premier played up the "win-win" nature of China's ascendancy and its impact on pan-Asian prosperity.
Beijing signed a non-aggression pact with ASEAN, meaning that sovereignty disputes over flashpoints such as the South China Sea would be shelved indefinitely in the interest of joint economic development.
Through means that include free trade agreements, the Chinese leadership also pledged to boost imports from, and economic aid, to ASEAN countries.
However, while the "China threat" theory has been less frequently cited in the world media, holes have begun to develop in the heping jueqi argument.
As Premier Wen said in the United States last December, a country's foreign policy is increasingly based on its perception of national interest and economic development.
It seems obvious that China's growing need for energy and raw materials -- a cornerstone of its national interest and prerequisite for sustained growth -- will stand in the way of its good neighbor policy.
Despite Beijing's apparent readiness to leave the South China Sea disputes to later generations, the leadership has raised alarms over apparent attempts by various claimants to expand their footholds in the oil-rich area.
Last month, the Foreign Ministry decried efforts by countries to invite multinationals to prospect for oil and gas in parts of the region that are under their effective control.
According to the official Outlook Eastern Weekly, "relevant countries have mounted offensives against China on the issue of sovereignty in the South China Sea -- and they have strengthened their military grip over islands and sea lanes""
China's anxiety to secure reliable supplies of electricity and water has also pitted it against neighbors including Thailand, Burma, Vietnam and Cambodia.
A case in point is Beijing's plan to build hydroelectric dams at the upper reaches of the Mekong and Nu rivers -- and to funnel more water from them for irrigation purposes.
This has resulted in less -- and poorer-quality -- water for countries reliant on the downstream portions of these rivers.
A much more serious impediment to heping jueqi, however, is China's refusal to overhaul its outdated governmental structures.
Thanks to the country's accession to the World Trade Organization in late 2001, more of China's economic and business operations have converged with international norms.
The winds of globalization, however, have hardly touched Chinese political institutions and systems.
Take the People's Liberation Army, which is a major factor behind the "China threat" theory.
Most Asian-Pacific countries have no quarrels with Beijing's urge to build up defense forces that are commensurate with the country's economic and geopolitical clout.
What they find most disturbing is the PLA's lack of transparency, particularly the fact that it reports only to the Communist Party's dominant faction.
China's irresponsible handling of the SARS outbreak last year also raised concerns.
And while the Hu-Wen team has since improved transparency and accountability regarding public health issues, there are accusations in the past month that Beijing has been tardy in disclosing information about new SARS cases as well as the on-going bird flu epidemic.
Cao Siyuan, a constitutional scholar and ardent reformer, has raised queries about the viability of heping jueqi in the absence of real liberalization in domestic politics.
"It is doubtful that foreign countries will be convinced about China's peaceful ascendancy if it sticks to a non-transparent and undemocratic political system," he said.
"Diplomacy is often the extension of domestic policy. A leadership's commitment to global fraternity and solidarity will be called into doubt if it is so reluctant to give its own people adequate human rights."
