|
|
 |
How severe will the six-year House itch be?Democrats should expect to lose seats, if history is any gaugeATLANTA (AllPolitics, November 2) -- Going into Election Day, Democrats only need to overcome an 11-seat Republican advantage to regain majority control of the House of Representatives. But as the party that also occupies the White House, history is not on the Democrats' side. All other issues aside -- like the Monica Lewinsky investigation -- Democrats are battling an historical curse. Only once before has the president's party made gains during a midterm election, and since World War II, losses in the House have averaged 27 seats. 
The number of seats lost has been even more extreme in elections held midway through the president's second term (like this year) , a phenomenon dubbed the "six-year itch." Over the last five "six-year itch" elections, the party holding the White House has lost an average of 44 House seats: 47 in 1966, 48 in both 1958 and 1974, and 71 in 1938. The one such election that did not produce big losses was 1986, when Republicans lost just five House seats. In 1998, one historical trend works in the favor of the Democrats. The common denominator in previous years that saw substantial House losses was severe economic trouble. The 1938 election was held during the Great Depression, 1958 and 1974 occurred during recessions and the 1966 election was concurrent with a period of very high inflation. In 1986 -- the exception to the big-loss rule -- there were no major economic problems around the time of the election, which is also true in this cycle. But there is a downside this year as well. Scandal played a role in the GOP's losses of 1974, after the Watergate scandal, and may also have cost the party some support in 1958 when Sherman Adams, one of President Dwight Eisenhower's closest aides, had to resign just before the election following his implication in a scandal. With President Bill Clinton's personal troubles, the Lewinsky scandal remains the big "X" factor in the 1998 election. Despite the historical trend, a big swing in the House makeup is not expected. There are currently 228 Republicans, 206 Democrats and 1 independent in the House. All 435 seats are up for grabs Tuesday but only 40 to 50 of the races are considered to be competitive, half the number in most years. Political analyst Stuart Rothenberg predicts only "low-to-mid single digit" gains by the Republicans. With the mood of the country relatively upbeat, most incumbents appear to be cruising towards re-election. Only between five and 10 incumbents from each party are thought to be vulnerable, such as Reps. Bill Redmond (R-New Mexico) and Jay Johnson (D-Wisconsin). If the balance of power is expected to drift in one direction or the other, it will most likely take place in the 34 open seats, that are now evenly divided between both parties. That's where competition between the parties has been most intense during the campaign. At the end of Election Day, the fate of incumbents and final control of those open seat races will most likely depend on voter turnout, the Lewinsky factor, the Republican money advantage throughout the campaign cycle and issues like the economy. But if history is any guide, Republicans can expect a good day. Political analyst Charlie Cook and The Associated Press contributed to this report.MORE STORIES:Monday, November 2, 1998
• Clinton stumps for Democrats, patients' bill of rights • Court to review Espy case
• How severe will the six-year House itch be? • Poll: Shift toward Democrats could be happening • Bush wants Republican in No. 2 spot in Texas • Candidates make last-minute pitches • Election attracts some unusual candidates • Justice warns against videotaping voters • Turnout could tell election tale |
