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Analysis: A small but historic shift for the DemocratsWhat will the shift mean for both parties?By Stuart RothenbergATLANTA (November 3) -- It wasn't exactly a tsunami, but the Democrats did something that no party has done since 1934 -- win seats in a midterm while holding the White House. They did it by defeating a few GOP incumbents, doing better than expected in open seats, and avoiding losses by their own incumbents. A strong economy appeared to help Democrats nationwide, with just a single Democratic incumbent, Wisconsin 8th congressional district freshman Jay Johnson, going down to defeat. In contrast, a handful of Republicans were ousted from the House, including Bill Redmond (New Mexico 3), Vince Snowbarger (Kansas 3) and Jon Fox (Pennsylvania 10). Vulnerable Democrats such as Leonard Boswell (Iowa 3), Charlie Stenholm (Texas 17), Ted Strickland (Ohio 6) and Lane Evans (Illinois 17) held on, as did targeted Republicans like Steve Chabot (Ohio 1) and John Hostettler (Indiana 8). Among the biggest surprises were Rush Holt's upset of Mike Pappas (R-New Jersey 12) and Baron Hill's defeat of Jean Leising to retain retiring Rep. Lee Hamilton's open seat in Indiana's 8th district. Even Democrats said Leising would win the seat after two previous efforts. Despite their disappointments, Republicans have to be pleased that Don Sherwood beat Democrat Pat Casey to retain Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district seat for the GOP, Pat Toomey won Pennsylvania's open 15th district seat, and Paul Ryan defeated Democrat Lydia Spottswood in Wisconsin's 1st. While the Democrats didn't gain enough seats to retake the House, their midterm gains defied history and were even more remarkable given President Bill Clinton's problems. Democratic wins in two normally Republican districts -- in Senate candidate Jim Bunning's 4th district in Kentucky (won by Democrat Ken Lucas) and retiring Rep. Mike Parker's 4th district in Mississippi (won by Democrat Ronnie Shows) -- proves that moderate-to-conservative Democrats can compete in conservative Southern and border districts. The Democratic gains heighten the possibility that House Democratic leader Dick Gephardt will not challenge Vice President Al Gore for the 2000 Democratic presidential nomination, instead preferring to stay in the House in the hope that he will become speaker after either the 2000 or 2002 elections. The president clearly was a winner in Tuesday's balloting. He helped boost minority turnout, and avoided the sort of GOP gains that would have fueled further talk of impeachment. In contrast, Republicans have to be greatly disappointed. Republican insiders, including House Speaker Newt Gingrich and NRCC chairman John Linder, had predicted large GOP gains. Instead, they were left with egg on their face -- as were some pollsters. House conservative will now have to decide whether to blame Gingrich and the party's compromises with the president for the loss, or accept some responsibility of their own. The Democratic gains shouldn't obscure the obvious: 1998 was indeed an incumbent's dream in the House. Republicans had hoped their heavy advertising and expected turnout advantage would help them knock off at least 8 to 10 Democratic incumbents, but they didn't come close. At the same time, only a few Republican incumbents went down to defeat. Where do the parties go from here? The Republicans have to figure out how to regroup, and they are still searching for a way to undercut the president. They also have to figure how to run the House with an even smaller majority. The Democrats must avoid overconfidence, and they are likely to push the same issues -- HMO reform, education, stopping teen smoking and campaign finance changes -- that they advocated, unsuccessfully, this year. Results of key House racesArkansas C.D. 2: Vic Snyder (D) (inc); Phil Wyrick (R) California C.D. 1 (Open, Riggs, R): Mike Thompson (D); Mark Luce (R) California C.D. 3 (Open, Fazio, D): Sandie Dunn (D); Doug Ose (R) California C.D. 36 (Open, Harman, D): Janie Hahn (D); Steven Kuykendall (R) California C.D. 42: George Brown (D) (inc); Elia Pirozzi (R) California C.D. 46: Loretta Sanchez (D) (inc); Bob Dornan (R) Colorado C.D. 2 (Open, Skaggs, D): Mark Udall (D); Bob Greenlee (R) Connecticut C.D. 5: Jim Maloney (D) (inc); Mark Nielsen (R) Georgia C.D. 6: Gary "Bats" Pelphrey (D); Newt Gingrich (R) (inc) Florida C.D. 3: Corrine Brown (D) (inc); Bill Randall (R) Hawaii C.D. 3: Gene Ward (D) ; Neil Abercrombie (R) (inc) Idaho C.D. 1: Dan Williams (D); Rep. Helen Chenoweth (R) (inc) Idaho C.D. 2 (Open, Crapo, R): Richard Stallings (D); Mike Simpson (R) Illinois C.D. 17: Lane Evans (D) (inc); Mark Baker (R) Illinois C.D. 19 (Open, Poshard, D): Dave Phelps (D); Brent Winters (R) Indiana C.D. 19 (Open, Hamilton, D): Baron Hill (D); Jean Leising (R) Iowa C.D. 3: Leonard Boswell (D) (inc); Larry McKibben (R) Kansas C.D. 3: Dennis Moore (D); Vincent Snowbarger (R) (inc) Kentucky C.D. 4 (Open, Bunning, R): Ken Lucas (D); Gex "Jay" Williams (R) Kentucky C.D. 6 (Open, Baesler, D): Ernesto Scorscone (D); Ernie Fletcher (R) Louisiana C.D. 6: Marjorie McKeithen (D); Rep. Richard Baker (R) (inc) Michigan C.D. 10: David E. Bonior (D) (inc); Brian Palmer (R) Mississippi C.D. 4 (Open, Parker, R): Ronnie Shows (D); Delbert Hosemann (R) Missouri C.D. 3: Richard Gephardt (D) (inc); William J. Federer (R) New Mexico C.D. 3: Tom Udall (D); Bill Redmond (R) (inc) North Carolina C.D. 2: Bob Etheridge (D) (inc); Dan Page (R) Ohio C.D. 1: Roxanne Qualls (D); Steve Chabot (R) (inc) Ohio C.D. 6: Ted Strickland (D) (inc); Nancy Hollister (R) Oregon C.D. 1 (Open, Furse, D): David Wu (D); Molly Bordonaro (R) Pennsylvania C.D. 10 (Open, McDade, R): Pat Casey (D); Don Sherwood (R) Pennsylvania C.D. 13: Joe Hoeffel (D); John Fox (R) (inc) Pennsylvania C.D. 15 (Open, McHale, D): Ray Afflerbach (D); Pat Toomey (R) Texas C.D. 17: Charles Stenholm (D) (inc); Rudy Izzard (R) Washington C.D. 1: Jay Inslee (D); Rick White (R) (inc) Washington C.D. 3: Brian Baird (D); Don Benton (R) (inc) Wisconsin C.D. 1 (Open, Neumann, R): Lydia Spottswood (D); Paul Ryan (R) Wisconsin C.D. 2: (Open, Klug, R): Tammy Baldwin (D); Jo Musser (R) Wisconsin C.D. 8: Jay Johnson (D) (inc); Mark Green (R) OVERVIEW:
Offices where party control switched Dems poured big bucks into final get-out-the-vote drive Turnout approaches 38 percent Minorities see ups, downs in results Clinton happy with midterm election results How voters see Lewinsky scandal SENATE RACES:
Schumer topples D'Amato in New York Senate race Edwards unseats Faircloth in tight North Carolina race Moseley-Braun loses to Republican Fitzgerald Democratic Boxer wins fight for Senate seat Washington's Murray heads back to the Senate Incumbent Hollings wins close race in South Carolina Bunning ekes out win against Baesler Reid defends Democratic Senate seat in Nevada Coverdell outdistances Democratic Senate opponent Campbell wins Colorado Lincoln defeats Boozman, Dems retain Arkansas Senate seat Gov. Voinovich wins Senate race in Ohio, defeats Democrat Boyle Democrat Bayh easily defeats Helmke in Indiana Analysis: Moderation sweeps the Senate HOUSE RACES:
Democrat Inslee bests incumbent White for Washington House seat Affair doesn't dampen support for Idaho's Chenoweth Democrats hold on to Colorado's 2nd district Sanchez trumps Dornan again in California House race Udall wins Redmond's New Mexico House seat Tradeoff in the bluegrass: Parties switch Kentucky House seats Familiar faces still around the House Baldwin breaks barrier, becomes first openly lesbian House member Second time the charm for Hoeffel in Pennsylvania House race Berkley takes Las Vegas House seat for Democrats Open Mississippi House seat goes to Democrat Shows House leader Bonior fends off GOP challenge in Michigan Snowbarger's Kansas district picked up by Democrat Moore Green pulls Republican upset in Wisconsin Simpson keeps Idaho's 2nd district in GOP hands Toomey takes Pennsylvania's 15th District for GOP Democrats to make historic gains in House Republican Sherwood wins open seat in Pennsylvania's 10th House district Hawaii rehires Abercrombie in House race Swing Connecticut district chooses Democrat Maloney again Republican Ryan beats Spottswood in Wisconsin's 1st district Illinois Rep. Evans bests Baker in closely watched contest Republican Baker fends off tough challenge in Louisiana House race Iowa's Boswell fends off Republican n House race Chabot holds off Democratic challenge Strickland retains Ohio's 6th district Bellwether Kentucky, Indiana House races split GOVERNORS' RACES:
Owens first GOP Colorado governor in more than two decades Moderates inherit the governor's mansions Former wrestler takes stunning win in Minnesota Guinn edges Democrat rival to pick up Nevada Knowles wins rare 2nd term in Alaska GOP Geringer keeps Wyoming Easy victory for Oregon Gov. Kitzhaber Ryan picks up Illinois governorship Democrat Davis wins heralded California governorship Cellucci stays as Massachusetts governor Conservative Johanns wins Nebraska governorship Gov. Ridge wins big in Pennsylvania Kempthorne wins landslide in Idaho Democrat wins Iowa for first time in 30 years Thompson wins record 4th term in Wisconsin Taft wins close governor race in Ohio Keating remains Oklahoma governor GOP Gov. Janklow keeps South Dakota seat New Mexico Gov. Johnson retains post GOP Gov. Almond keeps Rhode Island seat Gov. Engler easily wins re-election in Michigan Barnes edges GOP rival for Georgia's top spot Gov. Huckabee wins re-election in Arkansas Arizona GOP Hull stays in office Independent King keeps Maine seat Kansas Gov. Graves easily wins re-election Rowland wins re-election in Connecticut Glendening retains office in Maryland Siegelmen unseats incumbent James in Alabama Sundquist stays as Tennessee governor Texas Gov. George W. Bush wins in landslide Hodges wins South Carolina governor race Dean easily keeps Vermont governor seat Jeb Bush wins big in Florida Democrat Shaheen retains New Hampshire seat, gets third of GOP vote BALLOT RACES:
Prop. 3 failure places California presidential primary in limbo Medical marijuana popular at polls Anti-affirmative action ballot measure Washington state voters tie minimum wage to inflation California OKs Indian gambling expansion South Carolina removes ban on interracial marriage Michigan voters soundly reject physician-assisted suicide Plan to boost Calif. cigarette tax too close to call |