July 16, 1999
Web posted at: 5:42 p.m. EDT (2142 GMT)

WASHINGTON (July 16) -- What would happen if the Reform Party nominated one of the prominent public figures who have been mentioned as potential candidates for the top of the party's ticket next year?

None of them currently draw more than 17 percent support when matched against front-runners Vice President Al Gore and Texas Gov. George W. Bush, according to the latest CNN/TIME poll, partly because the public's appetite for an independent presidential candidate is relatively low and partly because the Reform Party is not widely known or particularly popular.

Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura is the strongest Reform Party candidate, drawing 17 percent in a hypothetical three-way match-up, followed by Ross Perot with 12 percent and Pat Buchanan with 9 percent.

New York real estate developer Donald Trump pulls 7 percent against Gore and Bush; New Hampshire Senator Bob Smith, who left the GOP this week and may continue his White House run as a third-party candidate, gets support from 5 percent if he ran under the Reform Party banner.

Former Connecticut Gov. Lowell Weicker wins 4 percent in a three-way race. Weicker and Smith are virtual unknowns to most Americans; Trump, Buchanan and Perot are well-known but not necessarily well-liked. Ventura, however, wins a favorable rating that is almost as high as Gore's.

But only 27 percent say they are very likely or somewhat likely to vote for an independent presidential candidate next year, down from nearly half in 1992 when Perot made his first insurgent bid for the White House.

One reason: Only a third of the public thought things were going well in the country in 1992; today 70 percent feel that way.

Clinton's approval rating remains high, and Gore and Bush remain well ahead of the challengers for their party's nominations.

The survey of 1,017 adult Americans was conducted July 14-15, 1999 and has a margin or sampling error of +/- three percentage points unless otherwise indicated.

Poll questions and data

Likely to consider voting for an Independent candidate for president in 2000 rather than the Democratic or Republican candidates?

Please tell me whether you have generally favorable or generally unfavorable impressions of each party.

Please tell me whether you have generally favorable or generally unfavorable impressions of the Reform party, or whether you are not familiar enough to say one way or another.

Things are going very well or fairly well in the country these days.

Suppose the election for president in the year 2000 was being held today, and you had to choose between Vice President Al Gore, the Democrat, and Texas Gov. George W. Bush, the Republican. For whom would you vote -- Gore or Bush?

Would you vote for Gore, the Democrat, Bush, the Republican or Jesse Ventura, the Reform party candidate?

Would you vote for Gore, the Democrat, Bush, the Republican or Ross Perot, the Reform party candidate?

Would you vote for Gore, the Democrat, Bush, the Republican or Pat Buchanan, the Reform party candidate?

Would you vote for Gore, the Democrat, Bush, the Republican or Donald Trump, the Reform party candidate?

Would you vote for Gore, the Democrat, Bush, the Republican or Bob Smith, the Reform party candidate?

Would you vote for Gore, the Democrat, Bush, the Republican or Lowell Weicker, the Reform party candidate?

Choice for president if Reform Party nominated ...

Please tell me whether you have generally favorable or generally unfavorable impressions of each person.

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way President Clinton is handling his job as president?

Thinking ahead to the year 2000, if you were asked to vote for a Republican nominee for president today, which of the following Republicans would you vote for?

Thinking ahead to the year 2000, if you were asked to vote for a Democratic nominee for president today, which of the following Democrats would you vote for?

Friday, July 16, 1999

• Clinton pitches economic plan to Iowans
• Poll: Independent candidate would not fare well against Gore, Bush
• Health care debate far from over
• FEC filings show chips on Bush's side of the table
• House's oldest member dies of infection
• House GOP may reduce tax relief package
• Republicans, Democrats trade barbs over farm relief
• Bush intensity gets in your face
• Cisneros judge suggests he's likely to allow use of some tapes
• House OKs Congress pay hike, doubling presidential salary
• Senators hear from localities on Y2K readiness
• Bush fund-raising overwhelms Republicans and Democrats
• Boston station's swap of donor list with Democrats under review
• Mayor's race pits city's strongest politicians
• Congress sends law to White House by e-mail for first time
• Clinton raising money, touting education in Iowa proposal
• TV appearance leads to candidate's arrest on burglary warrant

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