Landmark treaty to ban nuclear testing appears doomed on Capitol Hill

October 5, 1999
Web posted at: 8:43 p.m. EDT (0043 GMT)

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The long-delayed and hotly contested Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) appeared headed back into limbo on Tuesday as Republican opposition hardened and a senior Democrat conceded there were not enough votes for approval.

In this story:

Treaty on White House dinner table

GOP support disappeared

'Far greater risk'

Lott: Treaty is 'dangerous'

Pressure to resume testing?

Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott (R-Mississippi) and Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D-South Dakota) are consulting senators from their own parties about whether the Senate should put off consideration and a vote on the pact, according to Democratic Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-North Dakota) and other Senate insiders.

A spokesman for Lott said the treaty would be withdrawn only at the request of President Clinton and only with a White House assurance that it would not be brought up for consideration this year or next year. The treaty calls for a international ban on the testing of nuclear weapons.


The United States has not tested a nuclear weapon since 1992

"I am not going to allow this issue to be used for political purposes," Lott told CNN, meaning he wants any consideration of the treaty to happen after the 2000 elections.

Treaty on White House dinner table

But one administration official told CNN the president is unlikely to agree to Lott's conditions.

And Democratic Senate sources told CNN that some Republican lawmakers are telling their leadership that they don't want the treaty to advance to a vote next week when they would have to follow the GOP party position and vote against a measure that they believe should be supported.

The president invited a bipartisan group of senators to dinner Tuesday to lobby for the pact and defended it during two appearances -- once at the White House and again at a Pentagon bill-signing ceremony. The White House also offered a briefing on the treaty with four experts.

Lack of committee hearings or proper examination of issues surrounding the treaty were chief among Democrats' concerns when Republicans scheduled the vote. Democrats had wanted more time for hearings, for debate and to search for votes.

If the measure is withdrawn, with a presidential election next year, it would be unlikely the treaty would be resurrected before 2001.

GOP support disappeared

Floor debate on the treaty was scheduled to begin Friday with a vote set for next Tuesday.

But the Senate's top Democrat on foreign affairs said he told Clinton Tuesday that there aren't enough votes to ratify the treaty.

Sen. Joseph Biden (D-Delaware) said that while all 45 Senate Democrats were prepared to support the treaty, any Republican support appears to be disappearing.

"Republicans have evaporated into the ether on the treaty," he said. At least 22 Republican Senators would have to join the 45 Democrats for the pact to be ratified.

'Far greater risk'

Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty

Signed by 154 nations.

Must be ratified by 44 nuclear-capable nations before treaty can take effect.

The 23 that have ratified the treaty:

Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Britain, Bulgaria, Canada, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Peru, Poland, Slovakia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain and Sweden.

The 21 nations still to ratify the treaty:

Algeria, Bangladesh, Chile, China, Colombia, Congo, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Iran, Israel, Mexico, North Korea, Pakistan, Romania, Russia, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United States and Vietnam

Source: The Associated Press

A defeat of the treaty would be a humiliating loss for Clinton, who had argued that it was vital for America's national security interests and a deterrent to the spread of nuclear weapons.

At a signing ceremony for a $289 billion defense bill Tuesday, Clinton warned of the dangers of not ratifying the treaty.

"If the Senate rejects the treaty we run a far greater risk that nuclear arsenals will grow and weapons will spread to volatile regions, to dangerous rulers, even to terrorists," the president said.

"If we reject this treaty, the message will be, 'We're not testing, but you can test if you want to,' with all the attendant consequences that might have in India, Pakistan, China, Russia, Iran and many other places around the world."

Lott: Treaty is 'dangerous'

But Lott said the treaty is "premature."

"I think it is dangerous. We have got to make sure that we can verify the safety and the reliability of these weapons," said Lott.

"Also, we've got to make sure that when we do go forward, if we do, with this sort of treaty, that countries around the world, including North Korea, Iran, Iraq, China, Russia, India, Pakistan and others will live by such an arrangement. And I don't think we're there yet technologically or politically," the top Republican in the Senate said.

Critics have said the treaty -- which would ban all testing and set up a seismic monitoring network to gauge compliance -- is seriously flawed and unverifiable because there are ways to muffle atomic blasts.

They also contend those flaws would not prevent U.S. enemies or terrorist elements from developing nuclear weapons.

Only two of the seven acknowledged nuclear powers, Britain and France, have signed the treaty.

But the president said it would be wrong for the United States to wait for a perfect treaty.

"No treaty, not this one or any other, can provide an absolute guarantee of security, or single-handedly stop the spread of deadly weapons. Like all treaties, this one would have to be vigorously enforced and backed by a strong national defense," said Clinton.

Pressure to resume testing?

The United States has not tested a nuclear weapon since 1992.

The Senate Armed Services Committee held a closed-door hearing on whether the nation's nuclear stockpiles could be maintained in the absence of testing. Participants later said there was lively discussion on whether, if the treaty were voted down, pressure would increase to resume testing.

Secretary of Defense William Cohen and Gen. Hugh Shelton, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, are scheduled to appear before the committee Wednesday.

The treaty has been held up for two years in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee which is chaired by Sen. Jesse Helms (R-North Carolina). Helms, a staunch opponent of the treaty, scheduled a hearing Thursday and said Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and other officials would appear.

"Approving the CTBT would leave the American people unsure of the safety and reliability of America's nuclear terror while at the same time completely unprotected from ballistic missile attacks on the American people," the North Carolina Republican said Monday.

Correspondent Chris Black and CNN's Dana Bash and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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