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Web-only Exclusives
November 30, 2000

From Our Correspondent: Hirohito and the War
A conversation with biographer Herbert Bix

From Our Correspondent: A Rough Road Ahead
Bad news for the Philippines - and some others

From Our Correspondent: Making Enemies
Indonesia needs friends. So why is it picking fights?

Asiaweek Time Asia Now Asiaweek story

CEASELESS MANEUVERING

As a selfish elite tussles, the turmoil deepens

By Jose Manuel Tesoro / Jakarta


Activism Pushing a "People's Economy"

Adi Sasono On empowering the masses

Winners The top pribumi companies

Tycoon Bakrie says the poor must benefit, too

Dealmakers An M&A team gets the job done in Jakarta

THE STUDENTS SEEMED AS surprised as the guards. On Dec. 2, hundreds of Trisakti University youths spilled onto the front lawn of the presidential palace, an unprecedented event. It may have resulted from a security oversight. The Istana Merdeka had none of the barricades of baton-wielding soldiers that have become a common sight in Jakarta. So the blue-jacketed youth faced only the ceremonial palace guards, who quickly scattered. The students picnicked on the lawn while President B.J. Habibie held a cabinet meeting in a nearby building.

The episode, which ended peacefully, helps characterize the tumult that is now Indonesian politics. A violent clash Nov. 13 between protesters and soldiers, in which at least 16 were killed, marred the end of a special session of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), the nation's top constitutional body. It severely eroded Habibie's political credibility and tarnished his once respected miltary chief, Gen. Wiranto. And Indonesia's myriad groupings and politicians are maneuvering in the looming authority vacuum.

The power struggles, waged both publicly and behind closed doors, do not help a country already being pulled apart. A Nov. 22 riot in Jakarta, which claimed at least 13 lives and destroyed churches and Christian schools, has raised religious and ethnic tensions. Meanwhile, law and order is rapidly deteriorating. "The government is losing control while our nation is on the brink of a social revolution," said Abdurrahman Wahid, leader of Nahdlatul Ulama, Indonesia's largest mass Muslim organization. "We may not make it to the election." Last week, parliament speaker Harmoko announced a June 7 date for long-promised polls to form a new legislature. A fresh MPR would be formed, and it would install a new president and vice president by Nov. 10. But the sitting parliament is likely to retain the unpopular, top-down system under which many of its members were elected during the Suharto era.

Despite public opposition, the military is angling to retain its representation in parliament and the MPR. Wiranto, at first, tried to blame the Nov. 13 bloodshed on a group of retired generals and local activists, arguing they had provoked students. But that scenario has been greeted with skepticism. There is evidence that the provocation may have come from within the army itself. A week after the killings, a student informer told the National Human Rights Commission he had been warned by a military contact that there would be a "shooting spree" on Nov. 13. Sources say the violence may have been sparked by generals upset with a plan to give Wiranto a more powerful government role. If the armed forces chief is being undermined, that might explain potentially destabilizing actions - such as a Dec. 5 announcement that the military would arm villagers in restive East Timor to battle rebels.

Habibie's power base is as splintered as Wiranto's. The Indonesian Association of Muslim Intellectuals, from which the president has drawn much advice and backing, has reaffirmed its support for the government. Yet within Habibie's clique, competing power centers are already emerging. One is Cooperatives Minister Adi Sasono, who brandishes a populist agenda to hand wealth to small businessmen. Another is chairman Akbar Tandjung of Golkar, the ruling party. Habibie wants to develop a democratic order, says presidential spokesperson and political scientist Dewi Fortuna Anwar. But past abuses of laws and power have destroyed popular trust in government, so people are impatient and "distrustful of authority."

Indeed, there is a lack of faith in the ruling elite's ability to dismantle the edifices of Suharto's New Order. That reluctance is symbolized by Jakarta's slowness to act on the ex-leader. In recent weeks, students have demanded that authorities fulfill pledges to investigate Suharto. On Dec. 7, two ex-ministers, including Suharto associate Mohamed "Bob" Hasan, were summoned. The next day, Suharto himself was questioned. He maintains that he owns nothing ill-gotten, that he has only $3 million in three local banks, accumulated from salaries, rental income and pension from his 32 years as president.

The government may secretly worry that uncovering Suharto's corruption would implicate many top figures. But he may not be protected if it becomes politically expedient to prosecute him. Daniel Lev, a politics professor at the University of Washington, notes that for three decades, the elite's chief concern has been its own interests, not the nation's. Not only has that mindset outlasted the New Order, but so have the Suharto-style tactics of intrigue, division and provoked unrest to forward the establishment's aims. Examples are the student shootings or even religious conflicts.

But in post-Suharto Indonesia, no one knows anymore where an advantage lies exactly. "Decisions are being made by the day," says Lev. So long as the nation is tugged by many poles of power, it experiences an odd kind of stability. No party will move decisively unless it believes it can secure victory. Unfortunately, the stalemate makes for a most evanescent - and perilous - kind of peace.


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