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Scientists, industry debate anti-global warming plan

October 6, 1997
Web posted at: 1:03 p.m. EDT (1703 GMT)
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WASHINGTON (CNN) -- President Clinton sat down with scientists, environmentalists and business leaders Monday to try to raise public awareness of global warming and to form policy for an international climate conference to be held in Kyoto, Japan, in December.

At the Kyoto meeting, the U.S. government is expected to support binding commitments to reduce national pollutant emissions, in order to prevent -- or at least slow -- global warming. Clinton and Vice President Al Gore would like to cut emissions without antagonizing businesses. It may be an impossible goal.

The theory behind global warming is that burning gasoline, coal and other fossil fuels releases carbon dioxide and other so-called "greenhouse gasses," which form a blanket in the Earth's atmosphere. The blanket traps heat, and warms the Earth.



A L S O :

No consensus on solving global warming


Among global warming's possible consequences: The spread of drought and disease, and the melting of polar icecaps, which would raise ocean levels and submerge coastal areas and even entire islands.

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The majority of climate scientists agree that the Earth is heating up, and that people are partly to blame. The big debate now is a political one: One side argues that global warming's catastrophic potential has been adequately proved and must be kept in check. The other side says the evidence is inconclusive and that trying to prevent global warming could wreck the economy.

Scientific uncertainty helps fuel the debate. Researchers cannot agree on how much warmer Earth might get, or how fast.

A U.N.-sponsored panel of 2,000 scientists found "a discernible human influence" on global climate and that doubling greenhouse gas emissions could warm the planet by 2 to 6 degrees Fahrenheit over the next 100 years. This compares to a 1 degree rise over the last century.

Skeptics contend computer models are unreliable and suggest that other factor, such as clouds and oceans, could mitigate warming trends.

Joseph Goffman of the Environmental Defense Fund says the risks outweigh the uncertainty.
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But industries that might be called on to cut emissions say conflicting research and unknown risks are a flimsy foundation for new pollution rules, which could be costly for both businesses and consumers.

More research is needed, said Gail McDonald of the Global Climate Coalition, a lobbying group representing U.S. industries.
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McDonald also called the Kyoto conference an "arbitrary deadline" for committing to emissions reforms "which this administration has imposed on us. There's no reason for it," she said.

The administration says those complaining about the cost of stopping global warming should chill out.

"Again and again and again we've learned -- with acid rain, with lead in gasoline, with catalytic converters, with all these wonderful environmental statutes we've had -- that the predictions of economic catastrophe never happen," said Interior Secretary Bruce Babbitt. "In fact, what happens is just the opposite. We find that the environment and the economy go together."

While Clinton decides what to do in Kyoto, other countries are promoting their own proposals. Europe wants to cap carbon emissions at 15 percent below 1990 levels within 12 years. Some island nations want at least a 20 percent cut.

There also is the politically tricky problem of developing countries, such as China, whose carbon emissions are expected to soar as their economies grow. Under the rules of the Kyoto conference, binding emissions caps are to be limited to developed countries, with nations such as China and India agreeing to reductions later.

Correspondent Natalie Pawelski contributed to this report.

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