One of the nation's top political analysts, Stuart Rothenberg, dissects politics at the congressional and statewide levels.

Election 2000 overview

By Stuart Rothenberg/CNN

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Presidential election cycles are always three-ring circuses, and the 2000 election has become one of the biggest circuses ever.

With a two-term president unable to seek re-election, the House of Representatives clearly up for grabs, and Democrats counting on major Senate gains -- even hoping to win control -- there is a lot at stake in this year's elections.

Republicans' optimism is based on their view that they will take back the White House after an eight-year hiatus. GOP insiders believe that Americans are tired of Bill Clinton, have doubts about Vice President Al Gore and are ready for change.

Republican turnout was down in 1998, which helps account for the party's poor showing in the off-year elections. And even the most loyal Republican will agree that the party's recent presidential nominees, Bob Dole and former President George Herbert Walker Bush (in 1992), failed to excite Republicans and Independents. GOP strategists think that strength at the top of the ticket in 2000 will help all Republican candidates.

Democrats have reasons to worry about the presidential race. While Republicans held the White House for three consecutive terms from 1980 to 1992, voters often grow tired of one party after two terms. Ethics questions and controversies involving Clinton and Gore have also given Republicans ammunition.

And recent history isn't with the Democrats. Only four sitting vice presidents -- John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, Martin Van Buren and George Bush -- were elected directly to the presidency in the entire history of the nation. Al Gore is hoping to make it five.

The GOP presidential nominee, Texas Gov. George W. Bush, recovered after a shaky start during the primary season and tried to establish education as his most important issue. Surveys throughout the summer showed him with an early lead, which grew dramatically just before the GOP's national convention. Those same polls showed voters gave him high marks on his ability to handle key issues, including traditional Democratic ones such as health care, education and Social Security. Even more important, those same polls showed him with a significant advantage over the vice president in the area of leadership.

But Gore changed all that with his performance on the last day of the Democrats' Los Angeles national convention. Whether it was the highly publicized kiss he gave his wife, Tipper, or his fiery, populist speech, Gore changed the public's view of him. No longer was he a political opportunist or stiff second banana. Instead, he was a passionate, loving father and husband who lacked many of Clinton's weaknesses.

Public sentiment turned on a dime. Instead of being down double-digits in the polls, as he was going into the Democratic convention, Gore jumped a few points ahead of Bush.

Gore's luck didn't change when he left California. He and his running mate, Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, began a whirlwind campaign swing, with Lieberman -- the highly regarded Orthodox Jew and critic of the president's personal behavior -- vouching for Gore's integrity, morality and sincerity.

Gore's selection of Lieberman was regarded as a bold move. While some liberals and African Americans in the Democratic Party complained about the senator's moderate stands, Lieberman reiterated his support for the Gore agenda and helped the Vice President re-introduce himself to the country.

At the same time, Bush's running mate, former Defense Secretary Dick Cheney, was fanning the fuels of controversy by delaying a decision about what he would do with certain Halliburton stock options, and Bush was floundering when asked about his tax cut plan and about his charge that the U.S. military was not fully ready.

While Gore looked relaxed and energetic, Bush made mistakes, including miscalculating how the "debate over debates" would play, a much publicized gaffe in front of an open microphone, and his mispronunciation of the word "subliminal."

Post-Labor Day polls suggested that Gore surged ahead of Bush by at least a few points. Republicans became much less optimistic about Bush than they were in July, while Democrats, who started to wonder about Gore's electability, turned increasingly hopeful.

But the race turned again before the end of September, when Bush went on two popular daytime television shows and Gore was hit by the media and his GOP opponents for exaggerating and embellishing stories and anecdotes. Suddenly, Gore was again on the defensive over the issue of character.

The polls turned toward Bush, who received a surprising boost from the first presidential debate and then for Dick Cheney's performance in the lone debate between the vice presidential candidates. Bush did even better in the second presidential debate, and while most political insiders thought Gore did better in the third debate, television viewers split between Bush and Gore when asked to pick the winner.

So, as Election Day nears, the roller-coaster presidential race looked much as it once did -- headed for a close contest and an uncertain outcome.

While it's unclear whether the Democrats can hang onto the White House, it's likely that the Republicans will lose seats in both the House and Senate.

Normally, a strong economy means a content electorate that returns congressional incumbents to office and maintains the political status quo. But this year is different. While few House incumbents are likely to lose, the narrowness of the GOP's House majority means the Democrats could pick up just a handful of seats and still win control of that body.

The Reform and Green Parties still remain a question mark. While the Reform Party was split early on between its Pat Buchanan and John Hagelin wings, Buchanan was finally awarded the $12.6 million in federal funds that the party was due. But Buchanan, who was thought to be a headache for Bush, has proved to be a non-factor. Hagelin is the Natural Law Party's nominee, though he is also on some state ballots as the Reform nominee.

Meanwhile, Ralph Nader, the Green Party nominee, has become a factor in the presidential contest. While he clearly lost some support after the Democratic convention, he seemed to gain steam during October, increasing his vote in key states, such as Oregon and Washington.

The presidential race appears to heading toward a showdown in about a dozen states, with the outcome in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin and the Northwest most important.

It's very clear that there is a lot at stake in the 2000 elections. But the voters don't seem passionate about one party or the other. That means that all the races -- from president down to the House -- will focus on individual candidates and their campaigns.