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Morning News

Poll Shows Gore and Bush in Even Race

Aired August 29, 2000 - 11:03 a.m. ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: To politics now: a busy day on the presidential campaign trail. Al Gore in New Mexico and Oregon, while George W. Bush, the Texas governor, on the hunt for votes in Maine and New Hampshire.

The latest CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll shows the two men again in a virtual dead heat.

The Gallup poll's editor-in-chief, Frank Newport, now live from Princeton, bringing us up-to-date on the newest numbers.

Frank, good morning to you.

FRANK NEWPORT, EDITOR IN CHIEF, GALLUP POLL: Good morning, Bill. Indeed they are at a dead heat right now, and our interpretation is that that's good news for Al Gore that it's remained that way over the last two weeks since the Democratic Convention.

And let's show you why we say that: First of all, the basic numbers -- this is our poll from last Thursday through Sunday -- likely voters, "Who would vote for if the election were held today?" Bush 46, Gore 45, essentially a virtual tie. Nader now only getting 3 percent, and Pat Buchanan and the disputed Reform Party ticket only getting 1 percent. So it's tied.

Now, let's look at how we can summarize what we had during this turbulent convention time period. Over here where we said, before conventions -- that's actually summary of four polls we did in June and July -- Bush, that top line, the red line, had an eight-point lead through those four polls. Then between the conventions, Bush's lead expanded. He got the bounce from the Republican Convention, which came first.

But look here, we've now combined the two polls that we've taken since the Democratic Convention ended on the 17th of August. They're tied: Gore and Bush exactly at 46 percent on average. So when we compare where Gore was before the conventions -- you can see here eight points down to where he is now; they're tied -- we would say during both conventions the outcome was that Gore changed the structure of the race. He's now tied. That's good news for the Democratic ticket.

Now, what does that mean? Interesting question. Just a historic lesson for you, Bill, real quickly: In 1980, they were also tied -- Reagan and incumbent, Jimmy Carter; a lot of bouncing around happened, but Reagan went on to win significantly over Jimmy Carter when it was all over.

But in 1960, Kennedy and Vice President Richard Nixon also tied in our Gallup poll right at about this time. That changed a little, but it stayed tied all the way up, and that race was extremely close: all by way of saying, Bill, anything could happen. It could stay close, or one or the other of them may move ahead. Not very definitive there.

HEMMER: Love those historical perspectives, though. What about -- and we've asked this question before, Frank, just a few weeks ago. Was there a gauge those on who the -- those who were surveyed or polled thought would actually win the election this November?

NEWPORT: Yes, we've been tracking that measure, and that's a very important one, because it shows the psychological perceptions of the public about -- regardless of who they're going to vote for -- who they think is going to win.

Very interesting, back here in March and June, Bush was ahead on that measure. And look what happened after the Republican Convention: The whole American public, 70 percent of them said, Bill, oh, yes, George Bush is going to win. But now after the Democratic Convention, a lot of those expectations have come down.

Bush is still ahead 47 to 36 in terms of the "Who would win?" measure, but it certainly has moderated a lot. However, noted that in the poll itself the two are tied, the public still, despite that fact, thinks that Bush has an edge when it comes to their predictions -- that is, the American public's predictions about who will win in November.

HEMMER: All right.

NEWPORT: We'll keep measuring that.

HEMMER: You've got it. Frank Newport, thank you. November 7th coming up soon. Frank, thanks.

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