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Morning News

'Yugoslavia: Death of a Nation' Co-Author Discusses Upcoming National Elections

Aired September 22, 2000 - 11:21 a.m. ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: National elections in Yugoslavia are just two days away. The race that everyone's watching is the one pitting Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic against several opposition candidates.

Joining us from New York to talk about that race at stake -- and what's at stake is Laura Silber. She is a long-time Balkan analyst and co-author of "Yugoslavia, Death of a Nation."

Dr. Silber, thanks for joining us this morning. Good to have you here.

LAURA SILBER, CO-AUTHOR, "YUGOSLAVIA: DEATH OF A NATION": Thank you.

KAGAN: First of all, going back as little as two months ago, very few people expected Slobodan Milosevic to be in the race for his life.

How did this race turn around?

SILBER: It turned around because the opposition was able to unite behind a single candidate, and that candidate is Vojislav Kostunica. They're basically united. There are some differences, but this is very important because it made it clear to the voters that there was one candidate who really had the support of the main parties in the opposition and that's key.

KAGAN: And he kind of did it in an old-fashioned way, didn't he? By actually going around and visiting the different towns.

SILBER: He certainly did. Mr. Kostunica is a very modest guy. His goal is, really, to make Serbia a more normal place to live. He's also, in the eyes of most Serbs, a nationalist, which, in that political climate, is a good thing. He is someone who is seen as not compromised, not corrupt and, above all, I think, he wants to institute the rule of law, and that will be key for Serbia rejoining the outside world and beginning to be a member of the international community once again.

KAGAN: Well, speaking of corruption, since Mr. Milosevic is facing his -- perhaps, the end, right now, of his political life, do you think these will be clean elections? SILBER: No, I think it's very slim possibility that there will be a free and fair election. Certainly, there hasn't been a campaign. But, I don't think Mr. Milosevic is someone who will stand down if the results indicate that he has lost.

And so, what we'll see is Serbia will now enter into a great period of uncertainty. It's likely that both the opposition and the regime of Milosevic will claim victory, and then it will be a question of what the turnout is. Do people come out in massive support of the opposition? and will Milosevic try to repress any sort of public protest with the army and police.

KAGAN: And, does this government even have a precedent of turning over power if, indeed, Milosevic was to lose?

SILBER: Absolutely not, Milosevic is someone who, while he called elections, he called them only because he believes he would win and he miscalculated. And now, you see that the regime is very nervous. They have a very strident, anti-opposition propaganda now. So, I think that we cannot expect Mr. Milosevic to play by the rules for any reason now.

KAGAN: What about the people, actually, of this country? What do they have to gain by putting the opposition in power? I know they live under sanctions. What have we heard from different governments, different entities around the world, if they would ease those sanctions, if Mr. Milosevic was no longer in power?

SILBER: They have a lot to gain. And it's a question of whether most Serbs understand the message, because Milosevic controls the state-run television. So, the message from the West has been fairly clear, and that is, if the opposition wins elections and is allowed to take office, sanctions will be suspended, and Serbia will be allowed to begin the process of rejoining the outside world.

And even if these elections, if Mr. Milosevic claims them, it is the beginning of the process of the breaking down of the Milosevic regime. That can't happen overnight. But I think this is a very significant moment in Serbia and in Yugoslavia as a whole.

KAGAN: It will be a fascinating weekend to watch, and Yugoslavia, no doubt, as you mentioned, even two months ago, Mr. Milosevic never even saw this coming.

Laura Silber, thank you for joining us this morning on MORNING NEWS.

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