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Morning News

Election 2000: Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan to Offer Early Indicators on Presidential Race

Aired November 6, 2000 - 9:38 a.m. ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Two hundred and seventy needed for Al Gore and George W. Bush to win, and a lot of question marks in a lot of different areas. We are going to open things up here with Bill Schneider, who is watching this so, so closely.

Good morning to you.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning, Bill.

HEMMER: First of all, let's take it for the Texas governor. Where are the Bush states right now?

SCHNEIDER: Here is our electoral map and it shows Bush leading in 26 states that are worth 224 electoral votes. Now, where are they? They are mostly in the south and west.

Now we have seen one former Bush state, which is new Mexico, go into the toss-up column. It used to be red, and now it is yellow. But there has been a trade. We saw one former toss-up state that is way up here in New Hampshire, all by itself a little patch of red, that went from toss-up to a Bush column. So there is an even trade there.

HEMMER: Tell you what I picked up overnight, a new Ohio poll came out, puts Bush up by 10 in Ohio. Traditionally, this is a state that goes Republican. However, it is not that different from Michigan or Pennsylvania. Is it possible, if Bush is up 10 here in Ohio, it could be 4-6 in Michigan, and 2-4 maybe in Pennsylvania.

SCHNEIDER: Ten points in Ohio is a big lead for a Republican, and that is I think a very good leading indicator, as you suggest.

HEMMER: Al Gore states, where are they?

SCHNEIDER: Well, the Al Gore states. He is leading 12 states, plus the District of Columbia, making a total of 181 electoral votes, of the 270 you need to win. And the one state that Gore has picked up from the toss-up column is right here, a patch of blue, the state of Minnesota, Jesse Ventura's state. That has gone from toss-up yellow to Gore blue.

HEMMER: We talked about the toss-up states for the past two weeks. At one time, we had 18 that were toss-ups. The numbers come in shorter. Where does is stand now?

SCHNEIDER: Twelve toss-up states, those are the ones in yellow, and that is 133 electoral votes that have yet to be decided. The big one to watch tomorrow night, way down here, in Florida. Florida reports at 7:00. It has got 25 electoral votes all by itself.

You know it's a little embarrassing for Bush to have to be competing for the votes in the state where his brother is the governor. But how moralizing it is for Gore to have to compete for votes in a toss-up state, his own state of Tennessee.

HEMMER: Twenty-five in Florida, 11 in Tennessee. We'll see how it goes.

Quickly, every week we have had you on for six months now with winners and losers in the weekly look at politics. Winners this week, who are they?

SCHNEIDER: I think they are the conservatives. If you look at the Pat Buchanan figures, he is getting 1 percent of the vote. Conservatives are totally on board with George Bush. They're not giving him any trouble, the way they did dad in 1992 or Bob Dole in 1996.

Look, Bush hasn't given them any cause to complain. He didn't change the platform. He picked a conservative, Dick Cheney, as his running mate. And most of all, conservatives want to get rid of the Clinton era. So when Bush says: I am a compassionate conservative. Conservatives say: We can live with that.

HEMMER: So if the conservatives are the winners this week, who are the losers?

SCHNEIDER: Well, I think liberals have been less than enthusiastic about getting on board with Al Gore. They have been pushing Gore to use Bill Clinton. But you know, Gore is Clintonism without Clinton, and that is a tough sell for liberal voters.

HEMMER: How about a twist then, you put us in that category as being the media and the press; why?

SCHNEIDER: That is right. We have a real last-minute twist in the campaign last week, as you know, when the story of the Bush's drunk driving arrest, driving under the influence 24 years ago in Maine came out.

Now the press treated this as a real big story. What else is Bush hiding, they wanted to know? We can't find any evidence that this this has had any impact on the vote.

The race has tightened a little bit, but not because Bush has been slipping, but because Gore has been picking up Nader voters and African-Americans. So much for the press controlling the agenda.

HEMMER: Good enough. Just a reminder, tomorrow night, if you are watching. Florida at 7:00; Ohio at 7:30; then you got Pennsylvania, Michigan, Missouri and Tennessee coming in at 8:00.

SCHNEIDER: And if Florida, and Pennsylvania and Michigan go for the same candidate that candidate is going to have a clear advantage.

HEMMER: We shall see you tomorrow. Thank you, Bill Schneider.

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