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Books Chat


A chat with Brian Crozier

The Soviet empire and Boris Yeltsin

January 11, 1999
Web posted at: 4:00 p.m. EDT

(CNN) -- Brian Crozier, author of "The Rise and Fall of the Soviet Empire," joined the CNN.com chat room on January 10, 2000, to discuss his book and the recent resignation of Russian president Boris Yeltsin.

Crozier joined the chat by telephone from London, England, and CNN.com provided a typist for him. The following is an edited transcript of the chat.

Chat Moderator: Welcome Brian Crozier!

Brian Crozier: Well hello to this audience... I'm speaking from London. I hope you all hear me.

Chat Moderator: What do you think of Boris Yeltsin's resignation? What impact will it have?

Brian Crozier: Well Yeltsin has chosen his timing very well. He has a gift for creating a sensation from time to time. But he is a rather inconsistent man. And in this particular case, he had already decided that his successor should be Mr. Putin. And of course he created a real sensation by announcing his resignation and at the same time announcing his successor. So everybody had expected him to remain as president until the next election which is scheduled for March. Instead he created this sensation by appointing this interesting man that had made his career in the secrecy in the old KGB, and was therefore not known at all to the general public.

Putin immediately created a sensation of his own by launching a 2nd war against the Chechens. There had been an earlier war some years ago in which the Russians faired very badly indeed. At first Mr. Putin was very optimistic, and now as we all know he has run into real difficulties.

Question from KEMags1: Do you see the chance for real reform under Putin or will cleptocratic rule in Russia continue?

Brian Crozier: Well, it is hard to say because Putin is obviously a highly intelligent man. And he is trying to please both sectors of opinion; both in the post-Soviet Parliament and in the wider audience of Russia. Nobody had heard of Putin because he was in the secret service, the old KGB and its successor the FSB. And suddenly he has become famous worldwide.

But a lot will depend on the outcome of the current war in Chechnya. Now if he turns out to be correct in forecasting a quick victory, that will be one situation. But if the Russian troops are forced to withdraw in disorder, which happened in the earlier war of 3 or 4 years ago, then he will probably be discredited in public opinion. So it would be correct to say that he is walking a kind of political tightrope at the moment. And I wouldn't like to forecast exactly how this will end.

Question from HisGrace: Please tell us what experiences motivated you to write a book on this subject.

Brian Crozier: That is for me a fairly easy question to answer. My motivation is that I have spent 40 or 50 years of my life fighting communism internationally, and studying its manifestations all over the world. I had forecast the collapse of communism at the time of the great Polish crisis in 1980/81. But I couldn't have a clear idea of exactly how long this collapse would take. And when it did come, it was so quick that in common with everyone else, I was taken aback.

Question from markaz: Did Yeltsin negotiate for his pardon before resigning and do you personally think Putin will fight corruption?

Brian Crozier: I don't think Yeltsin negotiated at all. I don't think that he personally has been involved in corruption. But corruption was widespread within the Yeltsin circle. And whether his daughter was involved in corruption is hard to say. But it is interesting to see that one of the first things Putin did was to fire Tatyana (Yeltsin's daughter)

Question from BonheurMTL: Would there be a chance for the Communists to gain a more significant majority in the Duma?

Brian Crozier: The answer is that it could happen. A lot depends on how successful Putin is. At first there was a wave of enthusiasm for him. And then came the difficulties involved in the current attempt to take possession of Chechnya

Question from KEMags1: So will Chechnya make or break Putin?

Brian Crozier: I think the short answer to that is Yes. If he persists and wins a victory, then he's sailing ahead to a permanent presidency. But if he fails and there is a Russian withdrawal, then he will not automatically be elected president. The position of the communists would be immediately strengthened if Putin were forced to withdraw Russian troops from Chechnya.

I would like to give some background about Chechnya if I may. Very few people seem aware that during World War II, Stalin ordered the deportation of the entire population of Chechnya, 436,000 people. The present population is more like 1.3 or 1.4 million. The entire population was deported to Siberia in sealed trains.

The accusation that Stalin made was that they were collaborating with the Nazi invaders. The Chechens weren't allowed to return to Chechnya until about 1957 but Stalin had died in 53. And the outcome, not surprisingly, is that the Chechens have a deep resentment for the Russian imperialists as they see them. And they also have a considerable talent for guerilla warfare, particularly in the Caucasus Mountains, which is their territory.

Question from KEMags1: Will success in Chechnya determine the future of nationalist Russia?

Brian Crozier: That is an interesting question. I think success or failure in Chechnya will have an influence for better or for worse on the future of post-Communist Russia. Now if Putin and the troops he has sent there come out victorious, then his future is ensured and the communist party will remain defeated. But if he fails, he will probably have to retire and this would give a tremendous boost to the old communist party under Mr. Zyuganov.

Chat Moderator: You can read about the latest in the Chechen conflict at http://cnn.com/2000/WORLD/europe/01/10/russia.chechnya.01/index.html.

Chat Moderator: Do you have a prediction on the outcome of the Chechen conflict?

Brian Crozier: It is very difficult to make a prediction on the outcome. I would say that Putin's career is seriously at risk and he has just sacked two Russian generals. He is therefore in a very difficult situation. It doesn't follow that he will immediately retire. He is an ambitious man who will persist and probably will hold on until the Chechens have to give in. But if he fails by the time the next presidential election is due, March, then I think his career will be in ruins and the communists will feel that they can come back.

Question from brin: What do you see happening to the Soviet Union's nuclear arsenal?

Brian Crozier: That's an important question. I think that the post soviet Russia will probably attempt to keep their nuclear arsenal on a permanent basis. Because in the post soviet situation, this arsenal is the one thing that still makes Russia an important world power.

Question from Joshua: What do you think the cooperation level should be in regards to NATO forces and the Russian Army, especially in regard to the Balkans? I personally am not in favor of close cooperation between NATO and Russia. There could come a time when this is possible. But one has to remember the origins of NATO. NATO was set up in 49 to counter the Soviet threat. There's not in the same sense, a Russian threat. But it is far too early to speak of close cooperation between Russia and NATO

Question from Joshua: Why?

Brian Crozier: Well, because Russia is still, in some sense, a threat. I'm not saying it is a military threat against the west. But one cannot rule out the possibility that Russia will try to extend its power over the former Soviet Empire. Again, I'm not saying this will happen. But we in the west must keep the possibility in mind.

Question from RiotNrrrd: How will U.S. relations with Russia differ now that Putin is in charge (and probably becomes elected?)

Brian Crozier: Well, we don't yet know about Putin's performance. He made a spectacular start when he was appointed the other day. But he has already run into real problems in the war against Chechnya. And we don't yet know how this will turn out.

Question from Ringo: When should The new President of Russia visit here (US)?

Brian Crozier: I think it would be very useful for Putin to visit the US. But at the moment he has a lot on his plate. It wouldn't be too easy to get away with the Chechen war going on. It would be difficult for him to absent himself.

Question from iaarc: Do you see Putin allowing continued sales of military equipment to China?

Brian Crozier: Interesting question. I can't claim to see into Putin's mind. He has so much on his plate, I would expect him to continue military deals with China.

Question from Ringo: Should we continue to fund the IMF and the loans being made to Russia ?

Brian Crozier: In my opinion, no. I think the IMF has wasted a great deal of western money. Not only the IMF, but there have been loans to Russia with very little evidence of an ability to repay those loans. We should bear in mind that although statistics are impossible to obtain, we all know that the gangs play a very important role in the Russian economy. There are links between the Russian gangs, the Yakusi in Japan, with the Sicilian Mafia, with the Cosa Nostra in the US, and with the Colombian drug barons. And the official economy of Russia at this time is slightly less than the Netherlands, which is a fraction of the size of Russia. The main reason for that is that a high portion of the Russian economy is controlled by the Russian Mafia, and therefore does not appear in statistics.

Question from Alan: Do you ever believe that Russia will become a true free-market democracy?

Brian Crozier: I must say that I'm personally pessimistic about Russia becoming a true democracy. They may attempt to but there is no tradition, no historical precedent for democracy in Russia. This doesn't mean that one can entirely rule this out. But it is important to realize that it won't happen within months. Already some strides have been made. There has been a relatively free press for example. And there are different parties within the Duma. But democracy in the full western sense of the term is still a long way off.

Question from ZoGGy: Do you feel that the reduction in the Nuclear Race has played a big part in Russia's economy?

Brian Crozier: I suppose the correct answer is Yes, it has played a part. The Russians will maintain their nuclear power, but whether they will increase it seems unlikely. Nevertheless, while a major armament such as nuclear power is maintained, it does affect the economy adversely.

Question from Joshua: Is there any sense of what Russian troop morale is now, for that matter what is the overall morale of the countryside population outside of Moscow?

Brian Crozier: As far as one knows, the morale outside Moscow and Saint Petersburg is obviously very low. There is a great deal of poverty. There are many enterprises where wages are paid irregularly. Morale is quite low. There is no evidence that I know of that anything has been done to improve morale. All accounts that reach me and the world's readers indicate that morale is very low and that people have great difficulty in surviving.

The morale of the soldiers was obviously high when this new Chechen offensive began. But now we have had the sacking of the two generals. The fact that the Chechens have fought back with their usual skill has had an effect on the troop morale. A lot depends on how Putin proceeds in the next 3 or 4 weeks.

Question from Candyce: Brian, CNN is reporting on an intruder shot at American Embassy in Moscow within the last hour or so....possibly two soldiers....any first thoughts on the motive for such an intrusion?

Brian Crozier: I don't think that this could be an incident in which there would be any official involvement. It is almost certainly going to be found to be two individuals trying to attract the attention of the public. But of course I could be proven wrong because I'm not on the spot.

Question from BonheurMTL: When do you think the "Soviet Empire" was at its most powerful, at which point in the Cold War?

Brian Crozier: Good question. I think the empire was at its most powerful in 62 during the famous crisis when President Kennedy who happened to be well informed of Russian capabilities through the spy, Penkovsky. He was alerting the west and specifically president Kennedy that despite the challenge from the soviet leader at that time, Krushchev. In fact the US was superior in nuclear capability to the Soviets. '62 was possibly the highest point of soviet power, but since they were in effect defeated without a war. Thereafter, the US grew and NATO grew.

Question from iaarc: I have only read your reviews, was there a mention of the play of the Pope and the Reagan administration on the condition of Russia?

Brian Crozier: Yes, there are mentions of that in the chapters devoted to Polish problems. So the influence of the Pope is certainly considered in my book. We are talking about the later period in Poland when Lech Walesa rose to international fame. That changed the whole thing. He and the pope were, in effect, allies. This was greatly to the benefit of the west.

Question from KEMags1: How would you describe the rise and fall of the Soviet Empire?

Brian Crozier: In my book, 829 pages answer that question, so I can't do it in a few words. The empire came in several phases... first when Lenin seized power and ordered the reconquest of the Russian Czarist Empire all the way to the eastern end of Siberia. Then there was a second phase when Stalin's forces threw the Nazi invaders back and conquered Eastern Europe, including 1/2 of Germany and the other eastern European countries such as Czechoslovakia, Hungary etc. For awhile, the Russian communist party controlled the Chinese communist party. That lasted for some years. And then, in effect, the Soviet Union gained control over Vietnam during the two Vietnam wars. Then there was what I call, the "peripheral empire." We started with Cuba in 59-60; then went on to scattered other places, including Ethiopia in Africa, and in Latin America, Nicaragua and Grenada. So these are the main phases of the empire which I have tried to deal with in great detail in my book

Chat Moderator: Would you recommend your book to those who are novices in Russian history or for those more well versed?

Brian Crozier: Good question. I have tried to aim at a wide readership, intelligent but not necessarily expert. It isn't written for academic readers. I have tried to maintain academic standards, but it is written for the intelligent reader...internationally.

Question from KEMags1: Come March...Putin or Primakov? Which do you prefer?

Brian Crozier: If by some remote chance I happen to be a Russian voter, I would vote for Putin. Primakov is much older than Putin. He has experience but he has never been a friend of the west, and is an Arabist. And he was a considerable personal friend of the Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. When the western coalition, masterminded by President Bush, engaged in the gulf war, Primakov was bringing comfort and aid to Saddam Hussein. I'm sure he is a clever man, but personally I prefer Putin.

Chat Moderator: Thank you Brian Crozier for joining us today.

Brian Crozier: I'd like to thank the audience because all the questions were intelligent and relevant to the present situation. I hope you find my book beneficial. I have benefited by the enormous archives provided to me by the Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace, part of the Stanford University. So that for the first time, many chapters could be written on the basis of archives that had never previously been published. So there is very little surmise in my book. It is based on facts. The archives cover an enormous range and include verbatim accounts of Soviet Politburo meetings

Chat Moderator: Goodbye Mr. Crozier. Thanks for joining us today.

Brian Crozier: Thank you very much!


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