Back in 2016, voters not affiliated with any party (independents) gave Bernie Sanders a big New Hampshire primary victory. The 40% of unaffiliated voters supported Sanders by a 72% to 27% margin over Hillary Clinton. This turned a close race among Democrats (a 50% to 49% Clinton advantage) into a blowout, giving Sanders a more than 20-point win overall.
This year, it's a very different game. Sanders still does better with unaffiliated voters (22%) than registered Democrats (15%). It's Biden, however, who does best among unaffiliated voters at 29%. It's another example of how Biden is eating into Sanders' support.
Our poll also asked voters whether they participated in the 2016 Democratic primary. Four years ago, there was, of course, a competitive Republican primary.
In a small sample size, Biden does better at 34% among those who didn't vote in the Democratic primary in 2016 than among those who did at 21%.
Sanders exhibits a very different pattern. He does his best (23%) among those who say they voted in the 2016 Democratic primary. Among those who didn't take part in it, Sanders wins just 6%.
For now, Biden's the one who can rightfully claim that he is winning over voters who weren't Democratic primary voters four years ago. They either sat out entirely or voted in the Republican primary.